Monday, December 31, 2007

What happens when extremists take over Pakistan?

So what would happen if "extremists" come to power? What would they do that ‎makes us so scared of them? ‎

Well for starters they are going to take out all the remnants of the liberal democracy ‎and replace it with arbitrary laws that they would make without any consultation. For ‎instance they can make a law saying that a president would remain so for the ‎rest of his life. Since they would be opposed they would allow their groups to freely ‎attack those that are against them. This may lead a withdrawal of law enforcement ‎so that quasi criminal elements can react against opponents and as an incentive gain ‎benefit from the process by looting and plundering.‎

The extremists would also lash out against liberal educational institutions and ‎intimate them. For instance a University like FAST may be called and threatened by people working for the Extremist Military Intelligence. These may also include TV stations that don’t agree with the extremist philosophy.

The upper classes and the business elite would at once side with the extremists for their own survival. In turn for economic incentive they would support the regime. This would lead to a short term economic growth for the rich as the extremist's and the elite collude. Laws would be relaxed and the rich would grow richer with the extremists.

All this ‎would lead to an economic collapse and food supplies and supplies of basic utilities ‎might be disrupted and their prices might increase and the law and order situation worsens. But nothing would be done to fix it. Why fix something when all are benefiting?

Since an oppressive regime might not want basic human rights as it would challenge ‎its complete authority they would probably shut down courts (or appoint their own ‎Maulvis to sit in and give judgments that are liked by them).

Since there would be no ‎accountability a culture of cleptocracy would emerge when looting and plundering ‎might continue on an institutional basis. The Extremists would seek privilege that ‎would make their life comfortable. They might think of developing separate cities or ‎enclaves in cities that are for them exclusively to serve as safe havens against the ‎anarchy that is growing outside. We might see these places be fenced to bar the public ‎from entering. A good design would be the E-8 Naval complex in Islamabad where ‎ordinary citizens like me cannot enter. The most logical place for these extremists ‎would be to settle in Punjab as is the richest and the most developed area in Pakistan. ‎

All this would start to breed resentment internally and on the international front. ‎There might be people in Balochistan and NWFP who might oppose them and a low ‎intensity civil war may start because Pathans and Balochi might not agree with their ‎policies. Similarly, they might try and keep the resistance down in Sindh by making ‎sure that their leaders remain ineffective when leading them. To counter this Quasi ‎criminal groups would have to be maintained across the country to scare people into ‎accepting their rule because their message would be that if we go out these people ‎would come it. A good example to follow would be the "Liberal' MQM.

Selective security lapses would be allowed to make sure this ‎impression is perpetuated. The subtle point would be that no action would be taken ‎against these people. A good example from our times would be the mystery ‎surrounding 12 May.‎

The missions statement for the extremist group would be that they would try to clean ‎up as much of Pakistan as possible because they know this is not sustainable in the ‎long run. International governments might be blackmailed that if they are removed ‎then the Nuclear weapons might go missing and used by terrorist groups on western ‎soil. Therefore, economic and military assistance would have to continue because ‎there is no other option left other than pay the blackmail money. This money would of ‎course be used to buy weapons from the western governments to keep them happy as ‎well. For instance if the president of United States comes from Texas then weapons ‎bought from Texan factories would be an ideal win-win situation for the extremists as ‎there would be little incentive for the President of USA to find a solution other wise. ‎The weapons would be used to quell any uprising that may occur in Pakistan. ‎However, this blackmail can end in only one way. The western Powers might find it cheaper to take the Nuclear weapons away than to continue paying the Blackmail money. This would happen when the regime gets weaker and weaker and wants the blackmail money to continue its pillaging and keep the people at bay by bribes and intimidation. A breaking point would come when the western powers realize this. With the nukes Pakistan would be no longer able to blackmail the world and vulnerable to India.

No you understand why we must not have Extremists running Pakistan. ‎

NB: Aren't they already here? ‎

No comments: